Temporal Trend Analysis (2020-01-01 to 2026-03-10) — Disc

The analysis is based on an aggregated dataset of 1,764 UAP reports where the described shape was classified as 'Disc.' The temporal scope spans 2,260 days, from January 1, 2020, to March 10, 2026. Geographic coverage is global, though the data is heavily skewed toward North America, with the United States representing the top 19 reporting locations and Canada appearing at rank 11. The dataset includes 4,163 total witnesses, yielding an average of 2.4 witnesses per event. No events in this subset were marked as corroborated. The analytical method is a univariate time-series analysis of monthly reporting frequency. The primary data dimension analyzed is the `monthlyTrend` object, which contains counts for 26 consecutive months from April 2024 to March 2026. This subset represents the most complete and contiguous data available for high-resolution trend analysis. Patterns were identified through visual inspection of time-series plots and calculation of descriptive statistics (mean, standard deviation). Anomalies were defined as monthly values exceeding two standard deviations from the mean of the 26-month series. Geographic distribution was analyzed via the `topLocations` and `locationPoints` arrays.

The dataset comprises 1,764 disc-shaped UAP sightings, representing 13.4% of the global shape distribution (N=13,198), making it the third most commonly reported shape after 'Orb' and 'Other.' The average witness count of 2.4 is 60% higher than the global average of 1.5 across all shapes. The corroboration rate for this subset is 0%, matching the global baseline. Temporally, the 26-month series from April 2024 to March 2026 shows a mean of 20.3 reports per month (σ = 9.5). A pronounced seasonal pattern is evident: the five highest monthly counts (July 2024, June 2025, August 2025, November 2024, and December 2024) all occur between June and December. The lowest counts (February 2026, March 2026, December 2025) occur in winter months. A statistically significant anomaly is present in December 2024, with 47 reports. This value is 2.8 standard deviations above the series mean and represents a 67.9% increase over the next-highest month (November 2024, N=28). Geographically, reports are heavily concentrated in the United States. The top three reporting jurisdictions are California (169), Florida (125), and Texas (92). The `locationPoints` data reveals clustering around major metropolitan areas, including Los Angeles (34°N, 118°W), the San Francisco Bay Area (38°N, 122.5°W), Phoenix (33.5°N, 112°W), Seattle (47.5°N, 122.5°W), and the New York City metropolitan area (40.5°N, 74°W).

The analysis identifies a strong seasonal periodicity in disc-shaped UAP reporting, with a peak in the summer and early fall and a trough in the winter. This pattern is consistent with increased human outdoor activity and clearer nighttime viewing conditions during warmer months, suggesting a significant correlation between reporting probability and ambient environmental factors conducive to sky observation. The anomalous surge in December 2024 is the most statistically significant temporal feature. This surge does not align with the typical seasonal trough and warrants further investigation. Potential exogenous correlates could include heightened media attention to UAP topics following legislative or governmental disclosures in late 2024, though this analysis cannot establish causation without concurrent media sentiment data. The geographic distribution is overwhelmingly correlated with human population centers. The lack of clustering in remote, low-population areas—often considered higher-probability zones for anomalous observations if the phenomena were physical and non-human—suggests the reporting frequency is driven primarily by witness density rather than any intrinsic geographic feature. The near-total sourcing (1,763 of 1,764 reports) from a single public database (NUFORC) indicates a potential reporting bias and limits the ability to cross-validate events, a critical limitation for establishing the objective reality of the reported phenomena.

This study establishes a clear temporal and geographic signature for disc-shaped UAP reports within the examined dataset. The high-confidence finding is the strong seasonal cycle and population-density correlation, which aligns with known socio-environmental factors influencing voluntary reporting. Confidence in the December 2024 anomaly as a significant deviation from the baseline is medium, based on its statistical extremity, though its cause remains indeterminate. The primary limitation is the dataset's provenance. The effective single-source nature (NUFORC) and lack of corroborated events mean the analysis describes reporting behavior, not necessarily the underlying phenomenon's characteristics. The dataset from January 2020 to March 2024 is not included in the granular monthly trend, preventing a full six-year analysis. Recommendations for further research are: 1) A multi-source correlation study integrating reports from MUFON, governmental databases, and military tracking data to assess reporting bias. 2) A media sentiment analysis for Q4 2024 to correlate with the December surge. 3) A case-control geographic study comparing report locations against random geographic points, controlling for population, to formally test the population-density hypothesis. 4) Expansion of the temporal analysis to incorporate the full date range (2020-2026) if higher-resolution data becomes available.